Moncks Corner, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXUS62 KCHS 160013
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
813 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings have been issued for the SC Atlantic waters from
8 AM until 8 PM. A Wind Advisory has been posted for Charleston
and tidal Berkeley counties from 8 AM to 8 PM. Aviation section
updated for the 0Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms tonight.

- 2) A powerful cold front will sweep through southeast GA and
  southeast SC on Monday, bringing a heightened risk for severe
  thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief
  bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall. An Enhanced Risk (3/5)
  of severe weather has been highlighted for the entire region.

- 3) Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms tonight.

Regional radar composite showed a large cluster of thunderstorms
over northern FL this evening. This activity will northward
tonight. Recent runs of the HRRR indicates that either
convection will arrive or develop over the area late this
evening or later tonight. These storms may produce some rounds
of heavy downpours and cloud to ground lighting. There is a
10-30% chance that some areas could see rainfall totals around
an inch, resulting from training storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A powerful cold front will sweep through southeast GA
and southeast SC on Monday, bringing a heightened risk for severe
thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief bursts
of moderate to heavy rainfall. An Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe
weather has been highlighted for the entire region.

A strong cold front will track through southeast Georgia and the
Lowcountry mid to late Monday morning and shift off the coastline by
the evening. This system will bring a multitude of hazards to the
region.

Severe Thunderstorms: As a large deepening mid-lvl trough ejects out
of the Ohio River Valley tomorrow morning, it`ll slowly track
eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic throughout the evening.
Simultaneously, an associated strong cold front will also track into
the region mid to late morning and offshore by the evening. Isolated
convection will likely develop ahead of the front in the early
morning tomorrow, followed by linear convection forced by the front
in the afternoon. It`s possible a couple of these isolated cells in
the early morning could become severe fairly quickly as the near-
storm environment appears favorable for supercell development.
However, the primary concern remains to be in the afternoon as the
front nears. The forecast area will be positioned within the warm
sector ahead of the front with temps. warming into the mid to upper
70s and dewpoints rising into the upper 60s, yielding a high degree
of destabilization within the atmosphere. This will support MLCAPE
values ranging into the 1000-1500 J/kg coincident with a rather
impressive wind field (0-6 shear ~50kt and 0-3km shear ~40kt). Mid-
lvl lapse rates continue to be modest, however sufficient low-lvl
moisture and strong forcing should compensate and allow for robust
updraft development in the afternoon. 12Z HRRR forecast soundings
show some indication of low-lvl backing (esp. in southeast South
Carolina), but the majority display unidirectional flow despite the
magnitude of shear. 12Z HREF indicates 0-3 SRH ranges from 200-300
m^2/s^2 with some isolated pockets of 350 m^2/s^2, suggesting the
tornado threat still appears present in the afternoon. Recent model
guidance displays a broken QLCS line with a favorable environment
for embedded supercells as it passes in the afternoon (between 2-
6PM). With all this to consider, it appears damaging wind gusts are
certainly the primary threat, followed by a an isolated tornado
threat, and hail threat being a distant third. The SPC has
highlighted the entire forecast area in an enhanced risk (level 3/5)
for tomorrow.

Gusty Winds: As mentioned within the severe threat above, the wind
field will be fairly impressive as it strengthens and expands across
the region ahead of the front tomorrow morning. Strong momentum
aloft should easily mix to the surface tomorrow morning, allowing
for strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts from the early morning and
through the afternoon. Wind gusts could exceed 40 mph outside
of any thunderstorms across Charleston and tidal Berkeley, with
gusts of 30-35 mph being more common. Therefore, a Lake Wind
Advisory has been issued for Lake Moultrie beginning at 4AM
tomorrow through 2AM Tuesday. A Wind Advisory has been posted
for Charleston and tidal Berkeley counties from 8 AM to 8 PM.

Rainfall: Forecast precipitable water values are expected to reach
around 1.2-1.5 inches ahead of the front, which is well above
climatological normals for mid-March. This is an indication that the
atmosphere is capable of producing efficient rainfall rates within
thunderstorms, however these heavier bursts will likely be short-
lived given the expected forward speed of these storms. This will
reduce the overall threat of excessive rainfall. Rainfall amounts
range from 0.25-0.50 inches, with localized higher amounts possible
within training thunderstorms. Thus, at this time, the risk for
intense rainfall producing flooding appears rather low.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday
night.

Cold high pressure will build behind a cold front late Monday
afternoon and night, setting the stage for an advection freeze
across interior portions of southwest SC/GA late Monday night.
Confidence remains higher for a Freeze Watch for Bulloch, Candler,
Evans, Jenkins, Screven, Tattnall, Allendale and Hampton Counties.
Elsewhere, low temps are expected to dip into the mid 30s, but frost
formation doesn`t seem likely due to persistent southerly winds
through the night.

Tuesday night should be slightly cooler with winds decoupling early
(going light/calm) under clear skies as the high settles over the
area. Another Freeze Watch will likely be needed for most non-
coastal zones, and a Frost Advisory is possible for the remainder of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, MVFR ceilings developed across KCHS and
KJZI, expected to linger through this evening. Regional radar
composite showed a large cluster of thunderstorms
over northern FL this evening. This activity will northward
tonight. Recent runs of the HRRR indicates that either
convection will arrive or develop over the area late this
evening or later tonight. Each TAF will feature a TEMPO from
11-14Z for TSRA and MVFR conditions. Strong momentum
aloft should easily mix to the surface tomorrow morning, allowing
for strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts from the early morning and
through the afternoon. A squall line should arrive during the
early afternoon, highlighted with TEMPOs. After the squall line,
winds should shift from the west and ceilings should lift to VFR
levels.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of flight restrictions are
possible with showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon as a
strong cold front passes by. Very gusty winds are expected
outside of any shower and thunderstorm activity at all terminals
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty southerly winds will develop across local waters tonight
well in advance of a cold front approaching from the west
Monday. An abrupt wind shift will occur early Monday evening as
fropa occurs. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected across all waters late tonight through Tuesday morning.

On Monday, gale force wind gusts appear likely across nearshore
waters along the Charleston County Coast, lower SC waters, and
in the Charleston Harbor ahead of the front and perhaps shortly
after the front when cold air advection is strong. Gale Warnings
have been issued for the SC Atlantic waters from 8 AM until 8
PM.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March
17-20, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are
encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites
during the maintenance outage:

KCAE - Columbia, SC
KLTX - Wilmington, NC
KJAX - Jacksonville, FL
KVAX - Moody AFB, GA
KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for GAZ087-088-099-100-114-115.
SC...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for SCZ040-042.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     SCZ045.
     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ050-052.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ330-350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ350-352.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ354-374.

&&

$$

Dennis/JRL/NED